All Eyes On The Continuous Commodity Index
Over the last year, the commodity sector took home the gold metal (err, medal) in the financial marketplace's great race higher. This January, the flagship Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) of 17 leading meat, metals, energy, grain, and soft markets rocketed to its loftiest level in seven months. Since then, the commodity "bull run" has stalled, while commodity bullishness has soared.
Paper Trading Is NOT What Will Teach You To Trade
"Some people advocate 'paper trading' as a learning tool. Paper trading is useful for the testing of methodology, but it is of no value in learning about trading. In fact, it can be detrimental, by imbuing the novice with a false sense of security in 'knowing' that he has successfully paper traded the past six months, thus believing that the next six months with real money will be no different. Nothing could be further from the truth. Why?" Elliott Wave International's president Robert Prechter explains more in this important FREE report.
Lessons in Technical Indicators: Part 1
Greece has been a mainstay in the news recently because of its sovereign debt crisis. The movement of its stock index, the Athens Stock Exchange, though, provided Elliott Wave International's European Short Term Update editor Chris Carolan an opportunity to teach his subscribers about one of the useful technical indicators that he likes to combine with Elliott wave analysis -- Keltner channels. Enjoy this free lesson...
True Twisted Tales
Suppose Alfred Hitchcock was still alive and could use his incomparable gifts as a storyteller and movie director to chronicle the true twisted tales of our recent financial, political, and social scene. No one would enjoy it more or do it better...
Gold: Best Supporting Role In Economic Downturns? Think Again
Everywhere you look, from the Red Carpet to Wall Street, gold is definitely in "fashion." As for why, one word comes to mind: safe-haven. See, according to the mainstream financial experts, the more unstable the global economy, the greater the appeal for the precious metal. These two charts from EWI President Bob Prechter offer another perspective.
Why Is Radical Islam Becoming More Moderate?
"Radical Islam Is a Fact of Life. How to Live With It," proclaimed Newsweek magazine one year ago on the cover of its March 2, 2009, issue. Its recent Feb. 22, 2010, cover sang a different song, though: "How bin Laden Lost the Clash of Civilizations: The Untold Story of the Triumph of Muslim Moderation." What happened in the space of one year?
The No. 1 Rule for Investing Independently
Most people have trouble investing independently (1) because they don't have the time to devote to their investments and (2) because following the No. 1 rule is harder than it sounds.
Greece: From Triumph TO Tragedy TO What Now?
It has come to be called the "Greek Tragedy of 2010" -- the staggering fall from financial grace underway in the Hellenic Republic. The real tragedy, though, is that the mainstream financial experts didn't see the crisis coming until it was too late. Two years ago, as Greece's stock market boom was coming to an end, they continued to see the nation as the "key to Emerging Economies."
Learn Elliott Wave Analysis -- Free
Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. The Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around.
Do You Have the Mental Fortitude to Accept Huge Gains?
"It's one thing to know how something works, but quite another to make it work for you. The Wave Principle is no exception..."
Wave Principle Crash Course: There's No Going Back
For over ten decades, the mainstream financial world has embraced the view that external news events drive trend changes in the markets. In less than ten minutes, EWI's senior tutorial instructor Wayne Gorman shatters that very idea into a fine dust, swept away into thin air. In part one of his exclusive, free Club EWI video series "Why Use The Wave Principle," Wayne first assesses the pitfalls of relying on macroeconomic models to forecast.
Callous, Uncaring and Unforgiving – And That Was Just a Supercycle Bear
The bear market which began in 1929 was of Supercycle degree. The one we potentially face now is one degree larger. The last time we experienced a Grand Supercycle downturn was in 1720.
Municipal Bond Funds: Bleak Future
Many investors are blissfully unaware of the fact that many muni funds use leverage to pay high distributions. This added layer of risk makes these funds subject to the same liquidity concerns that plague other risky assets -- and as such, many muni bond funds act similarly to stocks.
The Sugar Selloff We Saw Coming: What Lies Ahead?
Two short months ago, the sugar market was taking the commodity world by storm with prices soaring to their highest level in three decades. And, according to the captains of the mainstream ship, the bullish waters were smooth sailing as far as the eye could see. Yet, from their late January peak, sugar prices have soured to a three-month low.
Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part II
Elliott Wave International presents Part II of the interview with its Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens. -- Vadim Pokhlebkin: I've seen online ads that say, "Trading forex is easy." Do you think it's easy? -- Jim Martens: Well, I’d go back to the question you asked me in Part I of this interview. Easy? No. Easi-er than equities? Yes. In forex, there are fewer markets, so fewer choices and less news to be concerned with -- so, fewer surprises. We just want to find the one currency that looks the strongest against others and one that looks the weakest. Found them -- now pair them together. Sounds easy, but keep in mind that...
Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part II
Elliott Wave International presents Part II of the interview with its Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens. -- Vadim Pokhlebkin: I've seen online ads that say, "Trading forex is easy." Do you think it's easy? -- Jim Martens: Well, I’d go back to the question you asked me in Part I of this interview. Easy? No. Easi-er than equities? Yes. In forex, there are fewer markets, so fewer choices and less news to be concerned with -- so, fewer surprises. We just want to find the one currency that looks the strongest against others and one that looks the weakest. Found them -- now pair them together. Sounds easy, but keep in mind that...
Economic Recovery: "Firmly On Track"? Faith vs. Facts
On Monday March 1, I came across a striking image on the front page of a popular online news site. Under the caption "Leap of Faith," the drawing depicted a smiling investor effortlessly hurdling across a wide, open chasm from "Great Recession" to "Financial Stability." That about sums up the general viewpoint of the mainstream financial majority.
(Video 3 of 3) Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: Bear Market Armageddon is Approaching
Bear Market Armageddon: Why Prechter Might Be Right This Time. Watch part 3 of 3 of Robert Prechter's interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2010.
(Video 2 of 3) Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: Deflation is Coming
Deflation is Coming and There's Nothing Bernanke Can Do About It. Watch part 2 of 3 of Robert Prechter's interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2010.
(Video 1 of 3) Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: Prepare for "The Biggest Bubble in History"
Bullish a year ago, Robert Prechter Now Sees "the Biggest Bubble in History." Watch part 1 of 3 of Robert Prechter's interview with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker on Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2010.
What Does NOT Move Markets?
Economists love to talk about exogenous shocks -- events outside of the financial system that cause markets to move. But what if it's just talk and not real at all?
The "House" Doesn't Always Win
Is a house the "surefire" investment we've been led to believe in recent decades? Do prices always rebound quickly? Is the worst over for the housing market? If you need to move soon, should you rent or buy?...
Forex Trading Vs. Stock Trading: What Are The Advantages? Part I
Elliott Wave International presents Part I of the interview with its Senior Currency Strategist, Jim Martens. Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jim, readers often tell us that they want to make money trading the markets. There are lots of options out there. Can you tell me why I'd want to look at forex and not, say, the more "traditional" stock trading? -- Jim Martens: First, currency markets are much larger than equity markets...
Soybean Futures Soared Despite Bearish Fundamentals
In late January 2010, soybean prices were circling the drain of a four-month low. And, according to the mainstream experts, the grain's fundamental backdrop had more bears in it than the Alaskan wilderness. Yet, in the first days of February, soybean prices took off to the upside.
What Were You Reading One Year Ago?
One short year ago, the US stock market was locked in a gut-wrenching tailspin. The major averages had plunged to their lowest level since Alan Greenspan had a full head of brown hair (i.e. 1987). And, according to the mainstream financial literature, "DOW-nte's Inferno" had officially arrived. It was, for the usual majority, time to abandon all hope all ye who enter here.
Use Bar Chart Patterns To Spot Trade Setups
For Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE-- and no, we're not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading "style," as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher. Jeffrey himself is, and always has been, a "trend" trader.
Going Out on a Limb
It’s one thing to identify a market correction after it's clearly underway, but a very different thing to identify the price turn in advance. One is a forecast and the other is not. It's the difference between describing the past vs. going out on a limb...
Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It
The most common misunderstanding about inflation and deflation -- echoed even by some renowned economists -- is the idea that inflation is rising prices and deflation is falling prices. General price changes, though, are simply effects. Effects of what? Keep reading to find out.
For Stock Speculators ONLY
Tom Prindaville watches intraday market movements like a hawk. He knows when trendlines have been breached, impulsive waves are unfolding, and corrective moves are underway...
Commodity Spotlight: Has The Sugar Bull Left For Good?
One short month ago, the sugar market was taking the commodity world by storm with prices soaring to their highest level in three decades. And, according to the captains of the mainstream analysis ship, the bullish waters were smooth sailing as far as the eye could see. YET, soon after, sugar prices turned down from their 29-year peak to the two-month lows we see today.
EWI's Asian Markets Analyst to Give 2010 Outlook in Tokyo
Elliott Wave International analyst Mark Galasiewski will use Elliott wave analysis to describe what lies ahead for Japanese and East Asian markets at the CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo, on February 25-26, 2010.
US Dollar Rally: On The Wings Of A Hawk?
Over the past week, the U.S. dollar has squashed all rumors of its demise like a bug on the windshield of a speeding semi. Last check, the greenback stands at its highest level in nearly nine months. As for what's causing the currency's new lease on life -- well, that depends on who you ask. In the eyes of the mainstream experts, the U.S. dollar is rallying on the wings of a hawk named the Federal Reserve.
Same Day. Same Event. Same Market. Different Story!
Elliott wave analysts sometimes hear the criticism that patterns in market charts can be "open to interpretation." Does that happen? Absolutely. (Although, there are tools an Elliottician can always employ to firm up the wave count.) But here's the real question: What's the alternative? Here's Bob Prechter's take on it.
A Long-Term Look At Leading Commodity Markets
Over the last month, there have been more sheer vertical drops AND rapid, soaring jumps in the world's leading commodity markets than in the 2010 Winter Olympics. The big question is -- which names will be standing at the awards podium, and which ones will be skating on thin ice in the weeks, and months to come?
The Long and Short of Selling During a Market Crash
Do you think buying or selling stock during a panic will be “smoother” than in the past because modern computers are involved? In fact, today’s system — much improved, to be sure — is nevertheless a recipe for an even bigger mess during a panic. Investors will be so nervous that they will screw up their orders. But that's not all.
Trade Forex Using Elliott Waves
Currency traders: How often have you woken up, read the news, put on a trade -- only to see it go the “other way”? A recent example was the debt problem in Greece. Trading off of that was like trying to catch a greased pig.
Where Few Dare To Tread
What options do we have regarding U.S. deficits? President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City gave three of them in his February 16 speech: doing nothing, inflating our way out of at least some of the debt... but there was also a third option.
Short the world?
The All-the-Same-Market Index, or ASMI. It shows a lot more than a bunch of prices going in the same direction. The ASMI is a stark picture of a stark truth, namely that in a deflationary environment, most financial markets are ultimately driven by a lack of liquidity and the extreme psychology of a credit contraction...
Short the world?
Two Financially Dangerous Words
The bear market rally has emboldened financial advisors, who later on may wish they had a better understanding of how bear market rallies work -- like the numerous such rallies in the years on the chart in this article...
How Elliott Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
Every trader and analyst has favorite techniques to use when trading. But where traditional technical studies fall short, the Wave Principle kicks in to show you high probability price targets and, just as importantly, how to distinguish high probability trade setups from the ones that traders should ignore. Here's how...
How Elliott Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
Every trader and analyst has favorite techniques to use when trading. But where traditional technical studies fall short, the Wave Principle kicks in to show you high probability price targets and, just as importantly, how to distinguish high probability trade setups from the ones that traders should ignore. Here's how...
Commercial Real Estate Crisis: NOW They Tell Us
On February 10, 2010 the Congressional Oversight Panel published a 189-page report on the condition of the U.S. commercial real estate sector. To summarize the document, "Hurricane Kat-REIT-a" has arrived. To wit: The "levies" that were supposedly in place to keep the flood of mortgage defaults and price declines OUT OF the commercial real estate (CRE) sector have shattered. And the toll of the damage is nothing short of devastating.
Diversification: A Portfolio Panacea?
One book’s author declared the crash basically over. But just below that same shelf in the same bookstore I saw a different book by a different author, with very different words...
Bob Prechter Points Out The Many Signs Of Deflation.
Everywhere you look, the mainstream financial experts are pinning on their "WIN 2" buttons in a show of solidarity against what they see as the number one threat to the U.S. economy: Whip Inflation Now. There's just one problem: They're primed to fight the wrong enemy. In a special, expanded November 19, 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist, Bob Prechter uncovered the "Continuing and Looming Deflationary Forces" underway right now.
Trouble in Greece is NOT What Troubles the DJIA
We've all heard mainstream market commentators blame the recent DJIA declines on concerns with Greece's sovereign debts. But does that really explain the Dow's weakness? Let's looks at some evidence together.
"Anger in the Air"
Pessimism On Display, Politically and Financially:
Dare We Ask, "What Could Follow?"
Why Topping Markets are Slow to Top
Unlike commodities, stocks don't just blow off. So what do they do, and why does it take them so long to do it?
EWI's Asian Markets Analyst to Give 2010 Outlook in Cairo
Elliott Wave International analyst Mark Galasiewski will use Elliott wave analysis to describe what lies ahead for Asian and Middle Eastern markets at the Fortress Markets Forum 2010 Outlook in Cairo, Egypt, on January 29, 2010.